Point of Focus

• Large-holder deposits to Binance dropped to the lowest level since January 2025.
• Wallets holding 100,000-100 million XRP increased their holdings by 2.8% over five weeks.
• Despite a healthy RSI, XRP remains under a 50-day/200-day EMA “death cross.”

As the crypto market attempts to build upward momentum in late July 2026, XRP Ledger’s native token, XRP (XRP), is flashing critical structural signals.

While the token faces short-term macroeconomic drag and choppy spot demand, key onchain indicators suggest that a major shifting of the tides may be underway beneath the surface.

Trading near the $1.13-$1.14 region, XRP is caught in a battle between macro headwinds and strong structural absorption. Onchain metrics reveal a classic market dynamic: Long-term conviction is quietly accumulating as large holders absorb supply, while exchange-side selling pressure experiences a dramatic burnout.

Exhaustion on centralized exchanges: Whale selling dries up

The primary catalyst fueling the bullish thesis for XRP lies in the sudden reduction of exchange-bound supply. Onchain data highlights a sharp drop-off in large-holder deposits to major platforms, particularly Binance.

According to CryptoQuant, XRP whale inflows to Binance dropped to just 25.3 million XRP, marking the lowest transfer volume from large entities since January 2025. To put this drop in perspective, peak distribution periods saw whales moving as much as 583 million XRP (worth upward of $1.36 billion) onto exchanges to realize profits or reduce exposure.

The 90-day moving average (MA) tells a similar story, sliding from about $460 million in early 2025 to near $69 million today. In market microstructure, falling exchange inflows signal the exhaustion of aggressive sell-side participants.

With fewer coins landing on order books, immediate overhead supply pressure is dissipating, allowing the price to establish a stronger base near the $1.00-$1.13 range.

Retail capitulation meets institutional accumulation

While exchange-side selling subsides, a clear divergence in wallet behavior has emerged across different tiers of investors.

Onchain data from Santiment reveals that addresses holding between 100,000 and 100 million XRP expanded their holdings by 2.8% over five weeks.

🐋 XRP’s move back above $1.16 Tuesday looks very much justified based on recent wallet behavior. Whales & sharks holding 100K to 100M XRP have added +2.8% more coins to their bags in five weeks, showing whales and sharks are leaning in while the chart finally starts rewarding… pic.twitter.com/aFmRll4HKJ

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 21, 2026

In sharp contrast, retail “micro-wallets” (holding under 0.01 XRP) reduced their exposure by 5.2%. This structural split, where deep-pocketed “smart money” accumulates while retail investors exit out of impatience or fear, has historically preceded sustained upward trends for the asset.

This accumulation phase coincides with an evolving fundamental landscape. Institutional engagement through XRP-focused funds, broader clarity on Ripple’s post-Securities and Exchange Commission regulatory status, and real-world adoption of the XRP Ledger for tokenization and stablecoin assets like RLUSD continue to provide a solid fundamental floor.

Macro headwinds and technical hurdles remain

Despite these encouraging onchain metrics, XRP’s immediate path upward is not without friction. A strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY) and elevated US Treasury yields have temporarily squeezed risk-on sentiment, leading to spot-market liquidity drains and cascades of long liquidations in perpetual futures.

Furthermore, low spot volume across exchanges like Binance and Upbit shows that aggressive buying volume has yet to fully return.

From a technical standpoint, XRP is navigating a delicate setup: The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains below the 200-day EMA, maintaining a medium-term “death cross” that requires a sustained close above $1.15 to structurally break.

The relative strength index (RSI) hovering around 54-58 reflects healthy, non-overbought buying pressure, while a recent breakout on the squeeze momentum indicator hints at expanding volatility.

Ultimately, whale accumulation and declining exchange inflows give XRP a sturdy safety net rather than an immediate launchpad. For bulls to target the next resistance zones at $1.156 and $1.184, broader macro relief and a genuine surge in spot-market volume will be required to convert this quiet consolidation into a full-scale rally.