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Prediction markets reached a historic milestone in June, surpassing $50 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time as the FIFA World Cup fueled unprecedented activity across the sector.
According to Artemis data, monthly volume jumped roughly 75% from May, highlighting how global sporting events have become major catalysts for event-based trading.
Kalshi led the market with approximately $33 billion in monthly volume, while Polymarket handled around $14 billion across its international platform and recently launched a US-regulated exchange. Robinhood-backed Rothera contributed another $2 billion, underscoring the growing competition among prediction market operators.
While the World Cup undoubtedly powered much of June’s record activity, industry observers are now asking whether the surge marks the beginning of a permanent expansion or simply a temporary spike tied to the world’s biggest football tournament.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become the largest liquidity event in prediction market history.
Kalshi processed approximately $7.4 billion in World Cup-related wagers during the tournament, comfortably surpassing the platform’s previous record set during March Madness.
Polymarket also experienced explosive growth, with football-related markets generating roughly $6.4 billion in trading volume compared with just $138,000 during the 2022 World Cup.
The numbers illustrate how quickly prediction markets can scale when a single global event captures widespread public attention. Users are not only betting on which nation will lift the trophy, but also on a wide range of outcomes, including the tournament’s top scorer, knockout-stage qualifiers, individual match results, and team performances throughout the competition.
Perhaps the most significant development lies beyond the headline trading volumes.
A 90-day Bitget Wallet study covering approximately 857,000 active Polymarket users found that 60% had no previous on-chain trading history before joining the platform. More importantly, most of those users remained engaged with prediction markets rather than migrating into broader cryptocurrency trading.
During the study period, users averaged nearly 1,200 prediction market interactions, compared with only around 12 decentralized exchange trades.
The findings suggest prediction markets are evolving into a standalone consumer product rather than serving as an entry point into crypto investing.
Coinbase has observed similar behavior. According to Toni Gemayel, the company’s Head of Prediction Markets, only a small minority of users approach prediction markets like traditional financial assets. Most instead use them as an alternative source of information, entertainment, and real-time forecasting of world events.
The biggest question now is whether trading volumes can remain elevated once the World Cup concludes.
Sports tournaments naturally concentrate enormous liquidity into a short period, making June’s record difficult to replicate without another comparable global event.
However, prediction market operators believe the user base built during the tournament may continue participating as attention shifts toward other major topics.
Political markets already rank among the industry’s largest categories. Traders have begun positioning for the upcoming US midterm elections, forecasting the next US president, with JD Vance leading with a 21% chance over Marco Rubio’s 16%, and speculating on future Democratic Party leadership. Those markets generate sustained engagement because they evolve over months rather than weeks.
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