preferred on
Point of Focus
- A cluster of 19 connected Polymarket accounts won 41 of 42 earnings bets.
- The trades reportedly generated around $22,000 in profits.
- KPMG said it has “zero tolerance” for employees using confidential client information.
A mystery Polymarket trader made about $22,000 after placing a series of remarkably accurate bets on the earnings of companies audited by accounting giant KPMG.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified a cluster of 19 connected accounts that collectively won 41 of 42 earnings-related bets involving 18 KPMG-audited companies, according to reported data.
The trades, which began in November 2025 and continued for several months, produced a reported success rate of about 98%. Companies targeted included Wells Fargo, DoorDash, General Mills and Home Depot.
One address linked to the activity, known as 0x0770, has generated roughly $22,400 in overall profit, according to Frenflow data. The wallet has been extremely active, recording more than 29,000 predictions and $4.6 million in cumulative trading volume.
The unusually consistent results have raised questions about how the traders achieved such a strong record, although there is currently no evidence establishing that the accounts used confidential information.
41 wins from 42 KPMG-linked earnings bets
The common denominator identified by researchers was KPMG: all 18 companies involved in the suspiciously successful earnings trades were audited by the Big Four accounting firm.
Polymarket‘s earnings contracts allow users to bet on whether a company’s reported financial figures will beat a Wall Street consensus estimate established when the market opens.
A mystery Polymarket user earned about $22,000 with a series of near-perfect bets on the quarterly earnings of companies that had one thing in common: they were all audited by KPMG. https://t.co/2PFkfSfFfw
— Alexander Osipovich (@aosipovich) September 11, 2026
On-chain researchers had already identified the trading pattern in February, months before the latest reporting. Wallets were reportedly placing concentrated bets on companies including Home Depot, DoorDash, CarMax, Thor Industries and StoneX.
One researcher also noted unusual activity around Wells Fargo, with the relevant Polymarket contract reportedly shifting sharply the night before the company’s results were released.
KPMG said it has “zero tolerance” for employees using nonpublic client information, including to trade on prediction markets. No KPMG employee has been charged in connection with the 41-of-42 betting pattern.
Polymarket tightens insider trading rules
The episode comes as prediction markets face growing scrutiny over the potential misuse of confidential information.
Polymarket updated its market integrity rules in March, explicitly banning trades based on stolen confidential information or illegal tips, as well as trading by people capable of influencing an underlying outcome.
Day 10✅
most people know @Polymarket as a place where you trade on the outcome of real world events
but one thing many people don’t pay enough attention to is the traders behind those positions
who are the consistent winners?
who is making the big bets?
what markets do they… https://t.co/HJ8G2vaZhO pic.twitter.com/RnHrsP3Z6J
— Kyrian ll (@kerian0fweb3) September 14, 2026
The platform has also said it uses machine learning, blockchain analysis and open-source intelligence to monitor suspicious activity and has referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement.
Prediction markets under US scrutiny
Federal authorities have already pursued separate prediction-market cases.
A US soldier was indicted in April over alleged Polymarket trading linked to classified intelligence concerning Venezuela, while the CFTC charged a Google software engineer in May over $1.2 million in prediction-market bets related to Google’s Year in Search.
A Google engineer used internal company data to bet on who would be Google's most searched person of 2025. He won $1.2 MILLION on Polymarket. The DOJ just arrested him.
Michele Spagnuolo is a 36 year old staff software engineer at Google. He lives in Switzerland. On Polymarket… pic.twitter.com/XXG3emaM8c
— Jeremy (@Jeremybtc) May 31, 2026
The KPMG-linked accounts, however, remain just that: a highly unusual on-chain trading pattern.
No public evidence has established who controlled the wallets or whether their near-perfect earnings record resulted from insider information.
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