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Kalshi added India to its restricted jurisdictions list in a member agreement update dated June 17, bringing the number of countries and territories whose residents cannot trade event contracts on the CFTC-regulated platform to 55.
For a company now valued at $22 billion and in preliminary initial public offering (IPO) conversations with investment banks, the India addition is not a minor compliance footnote. It is a signal of how fast the international operating map for prediction markets is contracting even as domestic volumes surge.
The Financial Times reported that Kalshi was seeking a $40-billion valuation in a new funding round, almost twice its previous valuation.
LATEST: 💰 Kalshi is seeking a $40B valuation in a new funding round, nearly double its previous $22B valuation, according to the Financial Times. pic.twitter.com/w1Jngb1AYf
— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) June 25, 2026
India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology issued a formal notice to Kalshi on April 25, warning about continued access by Indian users. That followed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, which took effect on May 1, 2026, and imposed a blanket ban on online money games tied to uncertain outcomes.
Indian authorities classified prediction markets within that definition. Polymarket was blocked by Indian internet service providers around May 21. Kalshi’s formal restriction in its member agreement came weeks later, closing off a market it had explicitly targeted.
In October 2025, Kalshi announced plans to expand into more than 140 countries, naming India among the priority markets. That expansion is now reversed.
India is not an isolated case. In 2026 alone, more than 10 national governments have introduced bans or major restrictions on prediction market platforms.
Spain blocked access to both Kalshi and Polymarket in May. Indonesia restricted Polymarket after users traded contracts tied to a sitting president’s tenure. Singapore, Poland, Portugal, Hungary, Ukraine, and Brazil have all blocked or prohibited access.
European regulatory pressure is also intensifying. Gambling regulators from nine European countries signed a joint declaration on June 17, committing to coordinated enforcement against unlicensed prediction market operators.
In the US, Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman sued Kalshi and Polymarket on June 17, alleging they operate unlicensed sports wagering businesses. Arizona filed criminal charges in March, while Massachusetts secured a preliminary injunction in January.
The regulatory pressure arrives at a structurally awkward moment.
Kalshi’s annualized revenue has reached $2 billion, triple its November 2025 level, with monthly trading volume hitting $16.81 billion in May 2026.
In May, the company raised $1 billion in a Series F round at a $22-billion valuation in May, with Coatue, Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest participating.
Sports contracts drive almost all of that growth, accounting for more than 80% of total monthly contract volume. This concentration creates a structural tension at the heart of the IPO case: The product line generating the revenue is precisely what state regulators want to stop, and international regulators are treating the same activity as unlicensed gambling regardless of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission designation.
The classification debate is unlikely to reach a resolution before Kalshi files for a public listing. How that open question is disclosed and priced will define the offering.
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