Points of Focus

• Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time, wiping out Drake’s $1.5-million-USDT bet.
• Drake’s public betting losses have now reached $5.7 million since April 2024.
• Polymarket recorded $158 million in volume, while Kalshi gave Spain a 59% win probability.

Lamine Yamal’s Spain defeated Lionel Messi’s Argentina 1-0 in extra time on July 19 at the New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, completing one of the tournament’s most anticipated finals and delivering another painful outcome for Drake, who had $1.5 million riding on Argentina through the crypto betting platform Stake.

Drake posted the slip on Instagram before kickoff at +245 odds on Argentina to win in regulation or extra time, a potential payout of $5.175 million.

Drake has gone big on Argentina in the World Cup Final 👀

A $5.1M payout awaits on Stake, if they beat Spain in regular time. pic.twitter.com/VMkPFTK951

— Stake.com (@Stake) July 18, 2026

Spain’s extra-time winner left no room for debate. Drake’s bet covered both regulation and extra time, but Argentina still lost, making it a complete loss.

The numbers behind the loss

TheDrakeCurse.com, which tracks his publicly documented wagers, counts 87 bets since February 2022, totaling $38.72 million in stakes against $37.17 million in returns, a net loss of $1.56 million with a 36.8% win rate. Soccer has been his worst category, with documented losses now exceeding $2.5 million after Sunday.

In 2022, he wagered $1 million on Argentina against France at the World Cup final and technically lost despite Argentina winning because his bet was settled on the 90-minute score rather than the final outcome, including penalties.

His most damaging run began on April 30, 2024, when Kendrick Lamar released “Euphoria” and restarted a public rap feud, coinciding with a brutal betting stretch. The $5.7 million in losses since that date includes $1 million on Conor McGregor against Max Holloway in the UFC this month and another $1 million on the New England Patriots in the 2026 Super Bowl.

In May 2025, Drake addressed the “Drake Curse” narrative directly in a Stake advertisement, saying he does not believe in a curse and pointing to his correct prediction of the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 championship win as counterevidence. His overall record and the timing of his highest-profile losses have sustained the narrative regardless.

What the prediction markets showed going in

Polymarket’s World Cup winner contract accumulated $4.28 billion in total trading volume as of July 18, the largest single prediction market by volume in history.

Spain was priced at 59 cents per share against Argentina at 40 cents, but Polymarket traders concentrated more capital on Argentina regardless, with $158 million staked on the underdog against $123.5 million on Spain.

Kalshi’s Spain-versus-Argentina match market priced Spain at 59%, paying 1.65 times on a win, with reported volume ranging between $1.25 billion and $1.29 billion across sources.

Combined World Cup prediction market trading across Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $10 billion over the tournament’s five-week run, a figure that dwarfs every prior sporting event in prediction market history.

The World Cup final’s $158-million flow toward Argentina included Drake’s $1.5 million but was driven by broader retail conviction that Messi’s generation would defend the title.