Points of Focus

• Bitmine holds 5.3 million ETH at a $3,561 cost basis, with $7.6 billion in unrealized losses at $2,102, zero realized losses, and $289 million in annualized staking revenue.
• All 11 MAs signal sell with the ADX at 26.90, the first reading above 25 in weeks, confirming directional trend conviction behind the decline.
• Hull MA at $2,092 is the only buy signal, with the dotted support at $2,089 the last technical floor before $2,000.

Ether (ETH) is trading at $2,101 on May 25, clinging to the dotted horizontal support on the daily chart at approximately $2,089-$2,100, according to CoinGlass data.

The session’s thin green candle lands the same week that Kalshi’s post detailing Bitmine’s unrealized loss position on Ether generated 1.3 million views on X, crystallizing the tension between institutional conviction and deteriorating price action into a single data point: Tom Lee has invested $18.55 billion in ETH, is sitting on $7.6 billion in unrealized losses, and has not sold a single token.

BREAKING: Tom Lee's Ethereum portfolio is now down $7,800,000,000 pic.twitter.com/ysTgykL49Y

— Kalshi Crypto (@Kalshi_Crypto) May 23, 2026

The portfolio metrics are stated as below:

• Current balance: $10,710,474,459
• Year-to-date change: -26.98%
• Total profit: -42.25%, -$7,835,804,931
• Realized profit: $0.00
• Unrealized profit: -$7,835,804,931
• Total invested: $18,546,279,390.

At the price of $2,102 on May 25, with Bitmine holding 5.3 million ETH, the unrealized loss narrows slightly from the $7.84 billion peak to approximately $7.6 billion as ETH has recovered modestly since May 23. The average cost basis, at $18.55 billion invested across 5.3 million ETH, works out to $3,561 per token. The gap between $2,102 and $3,561 is $1,459: the distance ETH must travel for Bitmine’s largest single position to break even.

The $289-million floor that changes the calculation

The $0.00 realized profit is the analytically significant figure, not the unrealized loss. Bitmine has not de-risked a single dollar through sales. It has instead deployed 4.7 million of its 5.3 million ETH into staking, generating $289 million in annualized staking revenue. Once Bitmine’s full stack is staked through MAVAN (Made in America Validator Network), projected annualized revenue rises to $324 million.

At $289 million per year, Bitmine earns approximately $793,000 in staking revenue daily regardless of ETH’s spot price. The position does not need to break even immediately; it needs to survive long enough for the thesis to be validated, and staking income is the mechanism that funds its survival.

Lee’s stated framework: “The best investment opportunities in crypto have presented themselves after declines … This happened in each of the 8 prior declines of 50% or more. A similar recovery is expected in 2026.” The thesis is being stress-tested at -42%. The answer has been a continued accumulation and zero exits.

The technical picture

Charts and technical data from TradingView ETH from its August 2025 peak near $4,950 to the February 2026 trough near $1,750, through the April recovery to $2,400, and back to the current price, with support at the dotted horizontal level of $2,089-$2,100. The May 25 low of $2,089.66 is the closest approach to that support since the sell-off from $2,400 began. Every prior test has held. The current session printed a small green candle, but with the average directional index (ADX) confirming a trend, the hold is not yet confirmed.

Every exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) on the panel signals sell. EMA10 at $2,134, SMA10 at $2,119, EMA20 at $2,181, SMA20 at $2,211, EMA30 at $2,205, SMA30 at $2,244, EMA50 at $2,221, SMA50 at $2,264, EMA100 at $2,297, SMA100 at $2,156, EMA200 at $2,529, and SMA200 at $2,541 all sit above the current price. The Hull MA at $2,092.17 is the sole buy signal, sitting below the May 25 session low, providing a narrow band of support.

The ADX at 26.90 is the most important reading in the panel. After spending several weeks below the 25 directional threshold, ADX has crossed above 25, confirming the current decline carries genuine trend conviction. This is the distinction between a range-bound pullback and a structured downtrend: Above 25, sellers are directional; below 25, the market is searching.

The relative strength index (RSI) at 38.43 approaches the 30 oversold threshold without crossing it. Stochastic %K at 27.03 has recovered from the deeply oversold readings of prior sessions. Momentum at -118.48 signals a buy for the second consecutive session, indicating that the rate of decline is decelerating even as the absolute direction remains negative. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) at -52.27 remains a sell signal. The Ichimoku Base Line at $2,216.69 is neutral.

• Resistance: SMA10 ($2,119), EMA10 ($2,134), $2,150 (prior dotted support now overhead), EMA20 ($2,181), Ichimoku Base Line ($2,217). A recovery above $2,181 would begin unwinding the short-term MA sell stack.
• Support: Hull MA ($2,092), $2,089 session low and dotted chart floor, $2,000 psychological, $1,930 next structural zone.

The Glamsterdam variable

The catalyst most likely to close the $1,459 gap between the current price and Bitmine’s breakeven is Glamsterdam. Ethereum’s roadmap confirms H1 2026 as the target, with a 200-million gas-limit floor locked in at the Soldøgn interoperability event, ePBS stabilized across multiple clients, and three new protocol cluster co-leads replacing the five May departures. Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 7732 (ePBS) and EIP-7928 (Block-Level Access Lists) anchor the upgrade alongside EIP-7904 gas repricing, which realigns costs with actual computational resources.

Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going.

First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) May 24, 2026

The structural disconnect at current prices is measurable. Bitmine’s 5.3 million ETH at $4,950, Ether’s August 2025 all-time high, would be worth approximately $26.2 billion against $18.55 billion invested, a 41% return on the full position.

At $2,102 per token, the same tokens are worth $11.1 billion. The distance between those two numbers is Glamsterdam’s job to close, alongside whatever macro reversal brings oil prices below $90 and activates Lee’s oil-inverse-correlation recovery thesis. No mainnet activation date for Glamsterdam has been confirmed as of May 25, 2026.