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Ether (ETH) is trading at $1,580 on June 29, down 9.5% over the last seven days, as per CoinGecko data.
The price remains below $1,600 for the fourth consecutive session, a level that has held as the upper boundary of the range since the flash crash that began June 25. The modest recovery from Sunday’s low arrives the same week ETH’s largest holders crossed a threshold that has only happened once before.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X on June 26 about how all three major ETH whale cohorts are now sitting on unrealized losses simultaneously, a condition that has only occurred once before, in 2019.
📉 $ETH whales are underwater.
This hasn’t happened since 2019, even in 2022 the biggest whales, those holding more than 100,000 ETH, stayed in profit.
💥 Today the 3 whale categories shown here are all at a loss. Their unrealized profit ratio is negative for each of these… pic.twitter.com/p7Mdnta2p9
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) June 26, 2026
Per Darkfost’s chart, wallets holding 1,000-10,000 ETH show an unrealized profit ratio of -0.26, wallets holding 10,000-100,000 ETH sit at -0.21, and the largest cohort, wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more, sits at -0.05.
Even during the entire 2022 bear market, the largest holders remained in profit throughout. This is the first time they have joined the smaller cohorts underwater since Ethereum’s earliest years.
Darkfost’s own framing is notably measured rather than alarmist. He noted the dynamic has been building over several weeks, over a long time frame. He cautioned that the data should be read carefully, given that horizon, and observed that, historically, when the ETH market has tested these whales’ conviction directly, a bottom zone has tended to form at the same time.
He concluded Ether has been “fairly resilient so far” despite the milestone. The distinction between cohorts matters: Smaller wallets are far deeper underwater than the largest holders, meaning the capital with the most conviction is barely negative at all, a different risk picture than uniform capitulation.
The same week, Tether’s USDt (USDT) briefly overtook ETH in market capitalization for the first time, with USDT reaching $186.06 billion against ETH’s sub-$185 billion as ETH fell to $1,510-$1,517, its lowest price of 2026.
USDT Surpasses ETH to Become Second-Largest Cryptocurrency by FDV, Behind BTC
According to CoinGecko, as ETH fell 5.5% over the past 24 hours, Tether USDT’s FDV reached $191.521 billion, surpassing ETH’s $187.532 billion and ranking second among cryptocurrencies by FDV, behind… pic.twitter.com/7eeSBHpKXt
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 26, 2026
ETH recovered second place by June 27, trading at $1,575 with a $189.7-billion market cap. The margin remains uncomfortable: At a fully diluted valuation, USDT’s $191.5 billion still exceeds ETH’s $187.5 billion, even after the recovery. The two events — whale capitulation and the market cap flip — landed within the same 48-hour window, reinforcing each other.
The daily ETH/USD chart and technical data from TradingView show that the Hull moving average at $1,545.94 is the only moving average (MA) below the current price, and it shows an upward signal. Every other tracked average sits above the price and shows a downward signal.
The relative strength index (RSI) reads 33.11, in oversold territory following the flash crash.
The average directional index (ADX) reads 33.12, indicating a moderate trend.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) at -78.98 sits below the signal line.
Several oscillators, including the Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Momentum, and Stochastic RSI Fast, are flagged at extreme readings consistent with a market that sold off sharply enough to register early reversal signals even while the broader trend remains negative.
Immediate support sits at June’s low near $1,510-1,517, the lowest level of 2026. The Hull MA at $1,545.94 is the first level to be reclaimed. The 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,631.87 and the 20-day SMA at $1,671.83 form the next resistance cluster that would need to be cleared for a full reversal of last week’s decline.
Darkfost’s historical observation that this exact whale-cohort condition has previously coincided with a bottom zone rather than continued breakdown is a pattern worth tracking without treating it as a guarantee since the data also note this is the second such instance in Ether’s history. The sample size is limited to one prior occurrence.
The USDT flip and ETH’s eroding market dominance are slower structural trends that will outlast this specific price episode, regardless of how the technical picture resolves in the coming days.
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