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Ether (ETH) is trading at $1,714.57 on July 3, up 6.3% over the past 24 hours, per CoinGecko data.
The session extends ETH’s recovery for a third consecutive day, breaking above $1,700 for the first time since the June 25 flash crash, as three supply-side data points simultaneously reach historic extremes.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on July 3 that Binance logged more than 166,000 ETH withdrawal transactions in a single day, a level not seen in over three years, coinciding with ETH’s roughly 10% two-day rebound from the $1,600 range.
📈 Binance ETH withdrawing transactions hit a 3-year high
Since its last top in August 2025, Ethereum is showing a drawdown of around 67%, roughly 15 percentage points deeper than Bitcoin's correction over the same period.
💥 Over the past two days, ETH has posted a modest… pic.twitter.com/gAVI2BLDRy
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 3, 2026
Darkfost offers three readings on the spike rather than defaulting to a single interpretation: genuine accumulation at the $1,500-$1,600 support zone, decentralized finance (DeFi) redeployment for onchain yield, and Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)-related panic from users who withdrew funds on July 1 amid FUD that accounts would be frozen, even though no such restrictions were implemented.
Darkfost concluded that the sheer volume means a meaningful share is still likely to represent genuine accumulation, even after accounting for the noise.
That withdrawal spike lands against an already-compressed supply picture. Leon Waidmann, citing CryptoQuant data, posted that ETH exchange reserves stand at 15.4 million tokens, the lowest level ever recorded across all exchanges.
ETH is getting locked away from every direction! 📈📉
🔹 Staking rate: 33%, the most ETH ever locked in staking
🔹 Exchange reserves: 15.4M, the least ETH ever sitting on exchanges
🔹 Both extremes hit while price sits at $1.6KPrice is at the lows.
Supply availability is at… pic.twitter.com/qGvb5oGxi1
— Leon Waidmann (@LeonWaidmann) July 2, 2026
At the same time, the ETH staking rate has reached 33%, the highest proportion of ETH ever locked in staking, with approximately 1.06 million-1.10 million active validators. Waidmann’s framing is direct: “Supply availability is at its tightest in history. That gap usually doesn’t stay open for long.”
Both extremes land simultaneously, while the price sits 67% below Ether’s August 2025 peak and about 15 percentage points deeper than Bitcoin’s (BTC) correction over the same period.
Bitmine posted on July 2 that the ETH/BTC ratio, sitting at 0.02753 and up 2.69% on the day, is H2 2026’s key ratio to watch as second-half conditions tilt more favorably toward ETH.
As 2H 2026 starts, a key ratio is $ETH / $BTC price ratio
– given growth in stablecoins, tokenization, new @ethereum spinoffs
– these favor this ratio risingmacro should be on balance friendlier
– oil declines = less inflation
– crypto still a downstream story to AI
– Clarity… pic.twitter.com/jzAOUADqv0— Bitmine (NYSE-BMNR) $ETH (@BitMNR) July 2, 2026
Bitmine cited four catalysts it expects to drive the ratio higher:
The ratio has sat near decade lows for most of 2026, with ETH consistently losing ground to Bitcoin on a relative basis since the August 2025 peak. Even a partial recovery would represent the first sustained ETH outperformance since late 2024.
The daily ETH/USD chart and technical data from TradingView show six moving averages (MAs) below the current price, all showing an upward signal: the Hull MA at $1,678.71, the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1,644.44, the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,610.41, the 20-day EMA at $1,669.70, the 20-day SMA at $1,671.02, and the 30-day SMA at $1,666.52.
The price is testing the 30-day EMA at $1,714.86, the first MA, which sits just above the current price, having cleared six MA levels on the way up from the June lows. Every other tracked MA sits above and shows a downward signal: 50-day EMA $1,806.17, 50-day SMA $1,824.47, 100-day EMA $1,982.17, 100-day SMA $2,035.91, 200-day EMA $2,269.78, 200-day SMA $2,274.01.
The relative strength index (RSI) reads 51.51, crossing above the neutral 50 level for the first time since before the June 25 flash crash.
The average directional index (ADX) reads 26.60, the lowest reading of the entire 2026 bear leg, confirming the downtrend has largely exhausted its directional momentum.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) at -49.47 shows an upward signal, as does Momentum at 49.67.
Immediate support sits at the session low of $1,692.64 and the Hull MA at $1,678.71. The 30-day EMA at $1,714.86 is the immediate resistance; a daily close above it would mark the first time price has cleared that level since early June.
The Ichimoku Base Line at $1,679.13 and the 20-day SMA at $1,671.02 form the first support cluster below the current price.
The convergence of historic supply tightness, record staking participation, and three consecutive green daily sessions above $1,600 gives the current recovery more structural backing than any prior bounce since the June flash crash low of $1,510.
The RSI crossing above 50 and the 30-day EMA test are the two levels the market is now watching in real time.
Neither Citi’s $2,240 12-month target nor Standard Chartered’s $4,000 forecast changes the near-term question: whether the supply tightness Waidmann describes at 15.4 million exchange-held ETH translates into sustained price pressure above the 30-day EMA or merely another failed breakout attempt.
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