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Ether (ETH) traded at $1,905 at the time of writing, down 0.17% on the session, after opening at $1,908.25 and holding within a range between a high of $1,917.94 and a low of $1,891.59, per TradingView data. The steadier session comes as two very different measures of Ethereum’s health point in opposite directions.
Ether’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) score fell 31 points over the second quarter, from negative 0.12 to negative 0.43, putting the network in Fidelity Digital Assets’ “Capitulation” sentiment zone, according to the company’s Q3 2026 Signals report.
ETH now trades 30% below its aggregate cost basis, with investors sitting on an estimated $87 billion in unrealized losses. The score reached a local low of negative 0.46 on June 6 and has not broken below it since.
Fidelity’s own historical data gives that reading some context. Based on 90 observations since 2018, periods when ETH’s NUPL registered near negative 0.43 have coincided with a median one-year return of 70% and a three-year compound annual growth rate of 133%.
The correlation between the score and forward returns is negative 0.13 over one year and negative 0.81 over three years, an inverse relationship, Fidelity says, supports treating lower NUPL readings as constructive while cautioning explicitly that these historical patterns may weaken or fail to persist and should be weighed alongside broader market conditions rather than read as a standalone signal.
That capitulation-zone reading landed next to a structural milestone moving the opposite way. Ethereum crossed 200 million non-empty wallets for the first time in its history this week, alongside USDC (USDC) on Ethereum crossing 8 million holders and Chainlink crossing 900,000, according to Santiment.
📰 Adoption Keeps Building Beneath Flat Markets
🔗 Chart Link: https://t.co/WWRJCRWUao🪜 Holder counts keep climbing. Over the past two weeks, Ethereum has crossed 200M non-empty wallets for the first time ever, XRP Ledger and USDC (on Ethereum) crossed 8M, and Chainlink… pic.twitter.com/12EAOpGCXx
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 28, 2026
Rising wallet counts during a capitulation-zone price signal is a specific divergence between price-based sentiment and actual network participation.
Fidelity’s own usage data adds a caveat worth carrying into that read. The share of economically relevant addresses, meaning wallets that actually contribute meaningfully to revenue or secured value, rose only a small margin in the second quarter even as raw address counts climbed. The company expects that gap to persist or widen after Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade, tentatively scheduled for the third quarter.
Ether’s daily candle printed an open of $1,908.25, a high of $1,917.94, a low of $1,891.59, and a last print of $1,905.08, per TradingView’s technicals panel.
The moving average (MA) stack favors the short-term trend with one level now in play. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1,869.33 and simple moving average (SMA) at $1,877.74, the 30-day EMA at $1,848.55 and SMA at $1,834.29, and the 50-day EMA at $1,846.07 and SMA at $1,768.90 all read upward signals.
The 10-day EMA at $1,897.09 also reads an upward signal, and the price at $1,905.08 now sits essentially on top of the 10-day SMA at $1,904.24, a level the price had slipped below earlier in the session. The 100-day EMA at $1,931.01, 100-day SMA at $1,944.88, 200-day EMA at $2,171.84, and 200-day SMA at $2,116.21 all sit above the current price as downward signals, along with the Hull MA at $1,913.79.
Oscillators stay mostly neutral.
Support sits at the 50-day EMA near $1,846, with the 30-day EMA at $1,848.55 sitting almost on top of it, reinforcing that zone rather than offering a separate cushion.
Resistance sits at the 10-day SMA and Hull moving average cluster between $1,904 and $1,914, a zone price is now testing from below rather than sitting under, with the 100-day EMA near $1,931 and 200-day EMA near $2,172 further out.
A close above $1,914 would clear the Hull average and put the 100-day EMA in range. A drop back below $1,846 would put the broader short-term uptrend under real pressure.
Three different time frames are describing three different parts of the same asset right now. Fidelity’s NUPL data is a multi-quarter sentiment read that has historically preceded strong forward returns when it reaches these levels.
However, the company stops short of calling it a signal to act on. Santiment’s wallet data is a structural, multi-year adoption trend that keeps climbing regardless of price. And TradingView’s daily chart is the shortest-horizon read of the three, showing a market steadying just under a resistance cluster rather than confirming a break in either direction.
None of the three resolves the others. The wallet count does not confirm the NUPL score is right about a bottom, and the NUPL score does not explain why new wallets keep opening while the prices struggle.
The 50-day EMA near $1,846 is the level that ties the shortest-term read to the rest: Holding it keeps the technical picture aligned with Fidelity’s longer-term case, and losing it would put all three time frames in tension rather than two.
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