Share
Ether (ETH) is trading at $1,667.20 on June 8, down 1.33% on the day, as per TradingView data. The price is holding above the dotted support band visible on the daily chart between $1,550 and $1,600, the last structural floor before the $1,400 band from the November 2023 low.
The session high of $1,710.75 failed to hold, leaving ETH below every major moving average and in the same price territory it occupied in early 2024 before the bull run began.
The USD price decline is the smaller story. The larger one is in the ETH/BTC ratio.
On June 7, PlanB, the pseudonymous quantitative analyst behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, posted an ETH/BTC chart showing the ratio at 0.026, the same level it occupied in March 2016.
Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is remarkable and has important insights:
– ETH has done worse than bitcoin over last 10 years!! Still at 0.026 BTC, like March 2016.
– No ETH bull market pump in 2023/2024, like it did in 2017 and 2021… pic.twitter.com/JOVOQVAWy0— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 7, 2026
The implication is stark: Across 10 years of Ether’s (ETH) existence, spanning the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, the decentralized finance (DeFi) summer, the non-fungible token (NFT) cycle, the Merge, and four distinct bull markets, ETH has produced zero net outperformance against Bitcoin (BTC) in BTC-denominated terms.
The 2017 and 2021 cycles each produced explosive ETH/BTC expansion, with the ratio reaching 0.12 in January 2018 and 0.08 in May 2021. The 2023-2024 cycle produced no comparable move.
ETH/BTC peaked at roughly 0.06 in mid-2022 and has since declined into a structurally lower series of highs. The absence of an altseason rotation into ETH during the period when Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $109,000 in January 2025 is the data point that most directly challenges the ETH investment thesis.
The price weakness does not exist in isolation. On June 5, CryptoQuant reported that total crypto spot trading volume fell to $700 billion, down 67% from a $2-trillion peak and the lowest level since October 2023.
Crypto spot trading volume fell to its lowest level since October 2023.
As activity slows, liquidity is concentrating around a small group of exchanges, with Gate ranking among the deepest across spot and perpetual futures markets. pic.twitter.com/Hx8h1q8RHK
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 5, 2026
Liquidity is concentrated around a small group of exchanges, with the broader market trading at a fraction of the activity that defined the 2024-2025 bull cycle.
ETH is declining into one of the thinnest spot liquidity environments of the past three years, which both amplifies downside moves and complicates any recovery attempt that depends on sustained buying volume.
The daily ETH/USD chart and technical data from TradingView show the price below every major moving average (MA).
The full MA stack: 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($1,770.79), 10-day simple moving average (SMA) ($1,797.25), 20 EMA ($1,894.39), 20 SMA ($1,936.54), 30 EMA ($1,971.85), 30 SMA ($2,034.30), 50 EMA ($2,056.84), 50 SMA ($2,148.07), 100 EMA ($2,188.23), 100 SMA ($2,142.05), 200 EMA ($2,441.08), 200 SMA ($2,444.30).
The Ichimoku Base Line sits at $1,911.88. The Hull MA at $1,561.25 is the only average below the current price, sitting 6.3% below the June 8 close and pointing toward the $1,550-1,600 support band.
Oscillators tell a layered story. The relative strength index (RSI) reads 26.97, deep in oversold territory. The average directional index (ADX) reads 49.54, confirming dominant trend momentum. At that ADX level, oversold oscillator readings carry reduced mean-reversion weight: Trend force is overwhelming, not exhausted. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) sits at -144.65, below the signal line.
Immediate support sits at the session low of $1,665.07, then the $1,550-1,600 chart band. A daily close below $1,600 opens the Hull MA at $1,561.25. On the upside, the 10 EMA at $1,770.79 is the first level to reclaim. A close above $1,770 would be the first meaningful break in the bearish MA structure.
ETH closed on June 8 at $1,667.20, holding above support for now. The ETH/BTC ratio at 0.026 is the longer-duration question: Whether the 2023/2024 cycle’s failure to generate altseason rotation represents a structural regime change or a delayed setup.
Total spot volume at $700 billion, the lowest since October 2023, means any resolution of that question will play out in thin conditions.
Share
preferred on
