Points of Focus

• ETH trades near $1,875, roughly 17% below its realized price of $2,304.
• CryptoQuant finds only two of five ETH/BTC ratios at bottoming levels.
• The price holds above its 20-, 30-, and 50-day averages but not its 10-day average.

Ether (ETH) traded at $1,874.95 as of Thursday’s close, down 0.13% on the session, after opening at $1,877.34 and swinging between a high of $1,880.43 and a low of $1,859.35, per TradingView data.

The move below $1,900 raises a question CryptoQuant put to its own data this week: Is Ethereum actually bottoming out or just getting cheaper?

CryptoQuant’s five-signal scorecard

CryptoQuant’s research frames the case around ETH’s realized price bands chart, which shows price sitting in the lower half of the band, roughly 17% below the $2,304 realized price, a zone the company ties historically to market bottoms and asymmetric upside.

Ethereum is cheap, but the data says the bottom isn’t in yet.

ETH trades 17% below its realized price, but only two of five signals have reached historical bottoming levels.

Selling pressure is easing. Capitulation is still missing. pic.twitter.com/lYIfHpslsl

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 23, 2026

Thursday’s $1,874.95 close puts ETH 18.6% below that same realized price, slightly wider than CryptoQuant’s reference figure from earlier in the week.

The firm tracks four additional signals against Bitcoin (BTC), each with its own historical threshold.

• The ETH/BTC market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio peaked near 0.95 in August 2025 and has fallen to about 0.65, still above the 0.45 threshold that marked prior ETH bottoms relative to Bitcoin, meaning ETH has moved from extremely overvalued to broadly neutral rather than truly cheap on this measure.
• The ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio dropped from a spike above 1.5 in August 2025 to 0.8, easing selling pressure but still short of the 0.4 zone associated with past lows.
• The ETH/BTC ETF holdings ratio fell from 0.20 in August 2025 to 0.115 in June 2026 before recovering to roughly 0.13 since late June, the first reversal in a year and an early sign allocators are tilting back toward ETH rather than a confirmed shift.
• The weekly ETH/BTC spot volume ratio has collapsed from about 1.75 to roughly 0.5, a range CryptoQuant said is already consistent with prior price bottoms.

That leaves two of the five signals, the realized price band position and the spot volume ratio, at levels the company associates with bottoming. The other three, MVRV, exchange inflows, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, are improving but have not reached those thresholds yet, which is the difference between a market getting cheaper and a market that has actually capitulated.

Technical levels to watch

Ether’s daily candle printed an open of $1,877.34, a high of $1,880.43, a low of $1,859.35, and a close of $1,874.95, per TradingView’s technicals panel.

The moving average (MA) stack is split. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits at $1,839.49 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,837.96, the 30-day EMA at $1,820.59 and 30-day SMA at $1,768.77, and the 50-day EMA at $1,830.04 and 50-day SMA at $1,736.13, all six of which are upward signals. Price sits below the 10-day EMA at $1,876.32 and the 10-day SMA at $1,886.92, both downward signals, as well as the Hull MA at $1,910.35. Further above, the 100-day EMA at $1,934.33 and the 200-day EMA at $2,188.35 both signal downward, too.

Oscillators are largely neutral.

• The relative strength index (RSI) reads 56.61, and the average directional index (ADX) reads 23.51, both neutral, suggesting the recent bounce has not built enough trend strength to register.
• The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) level reads 43.03, an upward signal, while momentum reads negative 13.81, a downward signal, the panel’s only two directional readings.
• Stochastic %K at 72.10, the commodity channel index at 46.16, Stochastic RSI fast at 43.43, Williams percent range at negative 38.79, bull bear power at 10.52, and the ultimate oscillator at 56.46 sit neutral, an 11-indicator panel that leans neither bullish nor bearish on balance.

Support sits at the 20-day EMA near $1,839, with the weekly low of $1,859.35 as the more immediate floor and the 30-day EMA at $1,820.59 as a secondary level below that. Resistance sits at the 10-day EMA and Hull MA cluster near $1,876-$1,910; the zone needs to be reclaimed before testing the 100-day EMA near $1,934 and, further out, the 200-day EMA near $2,188. A close below the 30-day EMA would put the short-term base under real pressure.

What comes next

CryptoQuant’s own framing carries the more useful signal here: Two of five metrics are still being built, not a confirmed floor. The MA stack echoes that split, with price holding a short-term base above its 20- to 50-day averages while trading below the very short-term 10-day and Hull readings.

One demand signal outside CryptoQuant’s ETH/BTC framework moved in the same window. Bitmine’s staked ETH reached 4.92 million as of July 19, up from 0.41 million at the end of December, with annualized staking revenue climbing from $34 million to $244 million over the same stretch, according to a Bitmine chart. The company projects staked holdings near 6.03 million ETH and $299 million in annualized revenue once it reaches its 5% supply target.

That reflects existing holdings being put to work rather than new buying, a distinct signal from CryptoQuant’s ETF and exchange flow data, but it is capital committed through the exact window ETH lost $1,900.