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Point of Focus
- XRP’s symmetrical triangle breakdown has shifted short-term momentum bearish.
- A sustained break below $1.31-$1.34 could expose the 50-period EMA near $1.28.
- XRP’s RSI remains neutral at around 53.6, but MACD is flashing sell signals.
XRP faces a potential decline toward $1.17 after breaking below a symmetrical triangle, even as Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin reached a record $2.44 billion supply.
XRP was trading around $1.34-$1.37 over the weekend after retreating roughly 20% from its recent $1.70 high.
The decline has weakened the token’s short-term technical structure, putting $1.31 in focus as the first major support before a possible extension toward $1.17.
The bearish setup contrasts with continued expansion elsewhere in Ripple’s ecosystem. RLUSD circulating supply reached an all-time high of $2.442 billion this week, after crossing $2 billion in late August.
However, stablecoin growth does not necessarily translate into demand for XRP itself.
XRP triangle breakdown raises $1.17 risk
XRP broke beneath the lower boundary of a tightening symmetrical triangle after failing to hold the $1.43-$1.45 area.
The breakdown was accompanied by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, strengthening the bearish short-term structure. XRP would need to reclaim the broken trendline and move above $1.43-$1.45 to invalidate that setup.
Before $1.17 comes into play, sellers must push XRP through a dense support area around $1.31-$1.34.
Camarilla calculations place S1 at $1.3143, while the 30-period exponential moving average sits near $1.327 and the corresponding simple moving average around $1.338.
A decisive loss of that cluster would expose additional moving-average support. The 50-period EMA stands near $1.278, followed by the 100-period EMA around $1.250.
Why $1.17 is XRP’s critical downside level
The $1.17 region represents a stronger technical test because it closely aligns with XRP’s 100-period simple moving average at approximately $1.168.
Daily chart identifies $1.1673 as a possible reversal zone. Under that scenario, however, touching $1.17 alone would not establish a bottom.
Confirmation would require bullish rejection, a two-day close above the level and subsequently a higher low.
The setup becomes invalid below $0.9929, placing XRP’s August low near the broader bearish threshold.
XRP’s indicators do not yet point to a uniformly bearish market.
The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) stands around 53.6, firmly in neutral territory rather than oversold conditions. Stochastic, Commodity Channel Index, Average Directional Index, Awesome Oscillator and Ultimate Oscillator readings are also neutral.
Momentum and MACD, however, currently produce sell signals, consistent with the triangle breakdown and recent price weakness.
Moving averages remain divided by timeframe. XRP trades below its 10-period EMA and SMA, indicating short-term pressure, while the 30-, 50- and 100-period averages continue to generate buy readings.
RLUSD hits record as XRP struggles
Meanwhile, RLUSD supply has climbed to a record $2.442 billion, up from approximately $1.7 billion in mid-August.
The divergence highlights the separation between Ripple’s expanding stablecoin infrastructure and XRP’s price performance.
Growing RLUSD supply increases stablecoin liquidity but does not automatically create buying pressure for XRP.
For XRP, the immediate technical battle therefore remains between $1.31 support and a recovery above $1.38.
Losing $1.31 would increase the probability of a move through $1.25 toward $1.17, while reclaiming $1.38 would give bulls an opportunity to challenge the $1.43-$1.45 resistance zone.
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