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Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $73,500 on May 29 after slipping below the $74,000 threshold, a move that has strengthened bearish positioning ahead of one of the largest monthly Bitcoin options expiries of the year. The decline comes as several demand indicators that supported Bitcoin through much of 2025 continue to weaken, including whale accumulation, spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and corporate treasury buying.
The immediate focus remains Friday’s $9-billion options expiry. Beyond that event, whale accumulation, ETF flows, and corporate treasury activity all point to weaker demand than earlier this year.
Onchain data shows demand among Bitcoin’s largest holders has continued to weaken.
CryptoQuant reported that annual balance growth among wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has turned negative, marking the fastest contraction recorded this year. Monthly whale balance growth has remained flat since February 2026, suggesting that large holders have shifted from accumulation toward mild distribution.
Bitcoin’s largest holders have stopped accumulating.
Dolphin balances have printed successive lower highs since Sept '25, while whale balances have remained flat since Feb '26.
Historically, when both cohorts stall simultaneously, sustained price weakness tends to follow. pic.twitter.com/YA5szi4BkO
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 28, 2026
The trend extends beyond whales. CryptoQuant found that “dolphin” wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, a cohort heavily influenced by ETFs and corporate treasuries, continue to grow on an annual basis but at a much slower pace than last year.
Monthly growth across both groups is now hovering near zero.
Historically, CryptoQuant said periods where whale and dolphin accumulation stall simultaneously have often preceded sustained price weakness because those cohorts represent a major source of demand support within Bitcoin markets.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad distribution range between $66,000 and $80,000, where buyers and sellers remain locked in a battle for control. According to his analysis, sentiment within that range has become highly reactive to price swings, with optimism returning as Bitcoin approaches the upper boundary and pessimism quickly reemerging near support levels.
Darkfost estimated that roughly 40% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was acquired at prices above current levels and is now being held at a loss. A move toward $66,000 would push that figure closer to 49%, meaning a larger share of holders would move into unrealized losses if Bitcoin revisits the lower end of the range.
BTC continues to trade back and forth within a distribution cluster between $66,000 and $80,000, where buyers and sellers are still battling for control.
This remains a difficult environment for investors to navigate, with euphoria emerging whenever BTC approaches the upper end… pic.twitter.com/8Zr96tDiJ0
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 28, 2026
The report also highlighted a less encouraging development beneath the surface. Long-term holder supply has climbed to a record 15.8 million BTC. While long-term conviction is often viewed positively, CryptoQuant argued that rising long-term holder balances during declining prices can also indicate a lack of new buyers entering the market.
ETF demand has continued to deteriorate in recent weeks.
According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $229 million in net outflows on May 28, extending the current streak to nine consecutive trading days of withdrawals.
The broader trend appears even more significant. Data highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter showed Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.6 billion in outflows over the last two weeks, including about $1.3 billion withdrawn during the most recent reporting week.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund, one of the largest drivers of Bitcoin demand since spot ETFs launched, recently recorded a single-day outflow exceeding $527 million.
Crypto fund outflows are accelerating:
Crypto ETFs posted -$1.5 billion in outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow since February.
This follows -$1.1 billion withdrawn in the preceding week, bringing the 2-week total to -$2.6 billion, the 3rd largest in at least a year.… pic.twitter.com/Ww7btrJqlI
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 28, 2026
ETF flows don’t always dictate short-term price action. Markets frequently absorb periods of withdrawals without major disruptions. Still, persistent outflows reduce one of the strongest sources of spot-market demand that fueled Bitcoin’s rally through 2024 and much of 2025.
Corporate treasury demand has also softened alongside ETF flows.
Strategy has paused its aggressive accumulation pace, while French semiconductor company Sequans Communications announced plans to monetize its remaining 658 BTC after ending its Bitcoin treasury strategy. Those developments do not indicate widespread corporate selling, but they suggest some of the demand sources that supported Bitcoin’s rally have become less active.
Some market participants have also started debating whether Strategy’s evolving capital structure could become a factor if Bitcoin’s weakness persists. Arca chief investment officer Jeff Dorman argued that recent financing decisions have increased pressure on the company to eventually generate cash flows to meet obligations tied to its preferred-share offerings.
Dorman suggested that a prolonged Bitcoin downturn could create tension between Bitcoin holders, Strategy shareholders, and preferred-share investors. Those concerns remain a market interpretation rather than a confirmed outcome, and Strategy executives have continued to maintain that the company intends to increase Bitcoin per share over time.
i'm not in Saylor's inner circle, but this $MSTR story has gotten so out of hand, my only guess is this:
– MSTR could have sat and done nothing before they started pumping out $billons of prefs… it would have made MSTR boring (little buys, no sells), but it would have been…
— Jeff Dorman (@jdorman81) May 28, 2026
Options positioning has added another layer of pressure.
Deribit data shows approximately $9 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on May 30. The exchange accounts for roughly 70% of the market’s monthly options activity.
The distribution of open interest currently favors bears if Bitcoin remains below $74,000.
At that level, only around $306 million of call options would remain in the money, compared with $1.05 billion in put options positioned at or above the same strike. Even if Bitcoin recovers slightly above $74,000 before expiry, put positions would still maintain a meaningful advantage.
Liquidations have already accelerated as price weakness intensified. Bitcoin’s drop toward $72,500 triggered more than $340 million in bullish leveraged liquidations, forcing some traders out of long positions and reinforcing downward momentum.
At the same time, options markets aren’t signaling outright panic. Deribit’s put-to-call volume ratio remained near 0.8 on Thursday, indicating demand for downside protection has increased but hasn’t reached extreme levels typically associated with capitulation events.
Despite the growing list of bearish signals, not all market indicators point in the same direction.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez identified the $73,000-$71,300 zone as a major support cluster. The area aligns with the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has guided Bitcoin since February 2026 while also overlapping with the 100-day simple moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Bitcoin $BTC reached a major support zone!
The price is currently consolidating right at the lower boundary of an ascending channel that has guided Bitcoin since February. What makes this area significant is that the channel floor aligns with both the 100-day SMA and the 23.6%… pic.twitter.com/HRPTmyByYA
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) May 28, 2026
He argued that a successful defense of that range could allow Bitcoin to revisit the $77,000-$79,500 area. A break below $71,300 would likely shift attention toward lower support levels and could trigger another wave of leverage flush-outs.
Macro factors may also be contributing to Bitcoin’s weakness. A recent academic study examining more than 118,000 market messages found Bitcoin often reacts negatively to hawkish central-bank narratives even when interest rates remain unchanged. The findings suggest liquidity expectations may be weighing on sentiment alongside weakening crypto-specific demand indicators.
For now, the balance of evidence favors caution. Whale accumulation has stalled, ETF outflows remain elevated, and bears hold a measurable advantage heading into Friday’s options expiry. Bitcoin continues to trade near the $73,000-$71,300 support zone that several market participants are watching closely as May draws to a close.
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