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Point of Focus
- A $300 crypto payment tax exemption could add an estimated $859 million to US revenue.
- Cornell’s projected range runs from $172 million to $2.58 billion.
- Sen. Lummis’ bill proposes a separate $5,000 annual cap on exempt crypto gains.
Exempting small cryptocurrency payments from capital gains tax could increase US federal revenue by an estimated $859 million over 10 years, according to a new analysis from the Cornell Brooks School Tech Policy Institute.
The study examined a de minimis exemption covering Bitcoin and other digital asset payments below $300.
Based on an unchanged population of 5.4 million crypto payment users, researchers estimated a 10-year net revenue increase ranging from $172 million to $2.58 billion.
The central estimate of $859 million challenges the assumption that any crypto tax exemption would automatically cost the government money.
Cornell expects easier everyday spending to increase crypto demand and valuations, generating additional taxable gains from larger, non-exempt sales.
Every crypto purchase can create a tax event
Under current US tax rules, cryptocurrencies generally count as property rather than currency.
Spending Bitcoin or another digital asset can therefore create a taxable disposal, even when a consumer uses it for an inexpensive everyday purchase.
A buyer must determine the asset’s cost basis, calculate the gain or loss against its value at the time of payment and retain records for tax reporting. That administrative burden applies even when the resulting gain amounts to only a few dollars.
The Cornell analysis argues that these transaction-level obligations discourage people from using cryptocurrency for ordinary payments. A $300 exemption would remove capital gains tax and associated reporting requirements from qualifying transactions, making crypto more practical for retail purchases.
Revenue could reach $2.58B over 10 years
The study’s $859 million central estimate assumes the number of digital asset payment users stays at 5.4 million. Its lower estimate places the 10-year revenue benefit at $172 million, while the upper end reaches $2.58 billion.
That range reflects uncertainty around payment frequency, transaction volumes and the degree to which tax simplification changes consumer behavior.
The researchers cautioned that the near-term effects on federal revenue and Bitcoin’s price would probably remain modest at current adoption levels. Any larger long-term impact would depend on whether the exemption substantially increases the number and value of crypto payments.
The proposal could also benefit altcoins used for payments, although some lawmakers want any exemption limited to regulated stablecoins rather than volatile cryptocurrencies.
Lummis bill proposes a $5,000 annual cap
Sen. Cynthia Lummis has proposed a broader exemption through S. 2207. The bill would remove capital gains tax from qualifying crypto payments while limiting each taxpayer’s total exempt gains to $5,000 annually.
That annual limit differs from the Cornell scenario’s $300 transaction threshold: one caps the value of each eligible payment, while the other restricts the cumulative gains a taxpayer can exclude over a year.
THE U.S. COULD MAKE MORE MONEY BY TAXING CRYPTO LESS.
Một báo cáo từ Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute (BTPI) cho rằng nếu Mỹ miễn thuế lợi tức vốn đối với các giao dịch Bitcoin và crypto dưới $300, thu nhập ròng liên bang trong 10 năm có thể tăng thêm $859M.… pic.twitter.com/fY62Pnqpr0
— Brainrot Labs (@Brainrot_Labs) September 9, 2026
Lawmakers have yet to settle the exemption’s scope. The debate now centers on whether it should cover cryptocurrencies broadly or apply only to regulated stablecoins.
Either approach would mark a significant shift from rules that currently treat buying coffee with Bitcoin much like selling an investment.
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