Points of Focus

• LINK trades at $8.17 after its largest exchange outflow since June 29.
• 1.26 million LINK left exchanges in 24 hours, thinning available sell supply.
• Twelve of fourteen moving averages still give a downward signal above the spot price.

Chainlink (LINK) trades at $8.1698, up 0.34% on the day, per TradingView data.

The daily candle opened at $8.1421, reached a high of $8.1894, dipped to a low of $8.0912, and closed at $8.1689, a modest bounce set against a supply shift that outweighs the price move itself.

Exchange supply thins on infrastructure news

Chainlink saw 1.26 million LINK in net exchange outflows over the past 24 hours, the largest daily outflow since June 29, according to Santiment.

🔗 Live Chart: https://t.co/C9AMcQELhL

😎 Chainlink (on Ethereum) has just had 1.26M $LINK in net exchange outflows in 24 hours. That’s the largest daily outflow since June 29th.

👋 Exchange supply is thinning. Fewer LINK tokens on exchanges means fewer coins sitting ready for… pic.twitter.com/uL7THkOc0M

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) August 4, 2026

Fewer tokens sitting on exchanges means fewer coins available for quick sell orders, which lowers near-term selloff risk if the trend holds.

The timing lines up with fundamental developments rather than isolated wallet activity. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation processed tokenized US securities trades in July, with Chainlink listed among the technology providers, while Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) expanded support across networks, including Canton and Robinhood Chain.

Outflows tied to expanding institutional integration carry more weight than a single large wallet repositioning since they suggest holders are moving supply into longer-term custody rather than staging it for a quick exit.

Exchange flow balance data shows the outflow accelerated sharply over the past several days after a period of relatively flat exchange holdings through most of July, a pattern distinct from the smaller, more frequent flow swings LINK had shown earlier in the month.

Technical levels

Of the 14 moving averages (MAs) TradingView tracks for LINK, only the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8.0233 and the Hull MA at $8.1533 sit below the spot price as support.

Every other average sits above price as resistance: the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($8.2561), the 10-day SMA ($8.2671), the 20-day EMA ($8.2677), the 20-day SMA ($8.3749), the 30-day EMA ($8.2411), the 30-day SMA ($8.2554), the 50-day EMA ($8.2522), the 100-day EMA ($8.5385), the 100-day SMA ($8.5669), the 200-day EMA ($9.6344), and the 200-day SMA ($8.9777).

• The relative strength index (RSI) reads 48.10, close to the midpoint.
• The average directional index (ADX) reads 12.56, an especially weak trend reading that confirms LINK is not currently in a strong directional move either way.
• The commodity channel index (CCI) at -105.31 gives an upward signal, while the Awesome Oscillator (-0.0342), Momentum (-0.6469), and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) at 0.0172 all give downward signals, a mixed picture that mirrors the moving average split above it.

The classic pivot point sits at $8.0443, close to the 50-day SMA, with resistance building at R1 $9.0194 and support at S1 $7.1905.

What comes next

The setup pairs thinning exchange supply against a resistance wall that starts immediately overhead. The 50-day SMA and Hull MA at $8.02-$8.15 form the only support cluster left, while the 10-day EMA at $8.2561 is the first wall a rally would need to clear.

Reduced exchange supply combined with holding that support cluster is the setup that historically precedes a squeeze if outflows keep pace; a reversal in the outflow trend, or a close back below $8.02, would put this back in line with the same bearish stack LINK has traded under for weeks.