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Points of Focus
- Glassnode’s Bitcoin upside implied volatility fell to a record low near 23%.
- The one-week 25-delta skew dropped more than eight points in one session despite limited spot movement.
- Past volatility squeezes often broke higher, but weak institutional demand leaves the current setup less conclusive.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) options market is showing its most extreme pricing on the upside. Glassnode’s upside implied volatility (IV), based on out-of-the-money calls, fell to a record low near 23% as BTC traded near $64,350 on Friday. Downside IV remains less extreme, suggesting the bearish-looking skew is being driven more by weak demand for upside exposure than by heavy demand for downside protection.
Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection.
While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%.
Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore. https://t.co/cqwzi8YxKk pic.twitter.com/4rqLYRqrnf
— glassnode (@glassnode) August 6, 2026
Bitcoin upside IV drops to record 23%
Glassnode’s upside IV measure tracks how much traders are paying for out-of-the-money calls across different strike prices and expiries. At roughly 23%, the reading is now at its lowest level on record. Downside IV was cheaper as recently as August 2023, showing that the current skew is being driven more by unusually cheap upside exposure than by a surge in downside protection.
Short-term options sentiment is still shifting quickly. Glassnode said its one-week 25-delta skew fell by more than eight points in one session even as Bitcoin’s spot price barely moved. A similar shift around the July high reversed within four days. Perpetual funding stayed near its long-run norm, suggesting the sharp change came mainly from options positioning rather than leveraged futures.
Low Bitcoin volatility leaves direction open
The 23% reading doesn’t establish Bitcoin’s next direction. Glassnode found that comparable compressions in one-month realized volatility have resolved upward in most historical cases, but the company also said those episodes usually had stronger demand operating in the background.
History also shows that volatility compression can break lower. Glassnode documented Bitcoin option IV rising from about 24% to above 55% after the Aug. 17, 2023, selloff, when more than $2.5 billion in long positions were liquidated. Low volatility had preceded a sharp repricing lower rather than an upside release.
The present demand backdrop also remains weaker than during several earlier squeezes. Glassnode said US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows equivalent to about 65,800 BTC in June 2026, their worst month on record, compared with more than 218,000 BTC absorbed during their strongest month in late 2024.
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