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Points of Focus
- Bitcoin trades at $77,201.07 as the oil shock pushes Treasury yields and the dollar higher.
- Brent touched $109.97 as September Fed hike odds climbed above 70%.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $449.5 million in outflows over three straight sessions.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $77,201.07 on Friday as the renewed oil shock pushed bond yields higher and traders increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Brent crude briefly reached $109.97 a barrel, a four-month high, while Fed funds futures priced a 71.1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting, according to Reuters.
Oil shock pushes Fed hike odds above 70%
Several macro forces are weighing on Bitcoin at once. Brent jumped more than 6% on Thursday and remained nearly 13% higher for the week as restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Red Sea shipping kept supply concerns elevated, according to Reuters.
The US 10-year Treasury yield then moved close to 5%, while the dollar held near its weekly high.
Higher oil prices can add to inflation pressure, while rising Treasury yields make bonds more competitive with risk assets.
CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25-basis-point September hike rising to 71.1% from 61.2% in the previous trading session.
Bitcoin ETF outflows deepen the $77,000 pressure
Macro pressure doesn’t fully explain Bitcoin’s weakness. Farside data show US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lost $46.6 million on Sept. 8, $120.2 million on Sept. 9, and $282.7 million on Sept. 10. That brought three-day outflows to $449.5 million after the funds drew a combined $905.4 million on Sept. 3 and 4.
CryptoQuant’s longer-window ETF measure points to a different picture. The company said its 30-day ETF netflow measure stood at $21.9 billion and estimated the cohort’s realized price at $72,000-$73,000 in a Sept. 10 post.
Bitcoin’s ETF demand regime has flipped.
– ETF netflow (30D Sum): +$21.9B
– BTC: $78.4K
– ETF realized price: ~$72–73KPrice is back above the ETF cohort’s cost basis, while flows have turned strongly positive 🧵 pic.twitter.com/78Gn98xGVM
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 10, 2026
These figures use CryptoQuant’s methodology and aren’t directly comparable with Farside’s daily fund-flow data. Bitcoin remains above that CryptoQuant cost-basis estimate, but the latest daily outflows show demand has weakened at the margin.
Bitcoin’s $75,000 level comes into focus
Glassnode said Bitcoin remains below a heavy long-term holder supply zone between $83,000 and $86,000, where 1.07 million BTC was acquired, according to its Sept. 9 report. The largest concentration sits near $85,000, leaving the area as a key overhead resistance zone.
Its seven-day Sell-Side Risk Ratio also fell to 7 basis points per day from 16 basis points at the August peak, showing that realized selling pressure has eased despite Bitcoin remaining below the resistance band.
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.
Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.
A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs. https://t.co/9fBfJzz1av
— glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2026
That leaves a mixed setup: Macro conditions have tightened, and ETF flows have turned negative for three sessions, while onchain selling remains relatively subdued.
The next test comes from the August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled on the BLS calendar for Sept. 11 at 8:30 am ET, five days before the Fed decision on Sept. 16.
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