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Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $65,364.55 on Monday as a second day without fresh US-Iran strikes pushed oil lower and brought buyers back to risk assets. BTC gained roughly 1% over 24 hours, tracking a broader risk-on move across equities, currencies, and crypto. The reaction suggests lower energy and inflation risks, rather than a crypto-specific catalyst, drove the advance.
Reuters reported that Iran agreed to suspend retaliatory attacks while the United States paused its bombing campaign, leaving room for renewed diplomacy. Brent crude dropped 4.2% to $92.74, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell close to 5% toward $85. Lower oil prices matter for Bitcoin because energy costs feed into inflation expectations, US Treasury yields, and the expected path of monetary policy.
The market reaction stretched beyond crypto. The euro and British pound gained against the US dollar, while US stock futures advanced as investors reduced defensive positions. Bitcoin’s recovery above $65,000 fits that risk-on pattern, while Ether’s (ETH) stronger gain near $1,950 showed some capital moving further along the risk curve. Bitcoin’s gain remained near 1%, compared with Ether’s advance of more than 3%, pointing to a measured relief move rather than a broad speculative surge.
Bitcoin also held near $65,000 on July 24 as Brent approached $100, showing that geopolitical stress had not forced BTC below its recent range. Monday’s gain reflected a reduction in the oil-related inflation premium, but it did not confirm a wider trend reversal. Fed guidance, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and resistance above $65,700 remain the next tests.
The US Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting on July 28, with a policy statement and press conference scheduled for July 29. CME FedWatch pricing placed the chance of a 25-basis-point increase at 33.7%, down from 37.4% as oil retreated. A rate hold remains the leading outcome, but the probability of a hike is high enough to keep leveraged positions sensitive to inflation and policy signals.
The oil pullback eases one near-term inflation concern, but a single session is unlikely to determine the Fed’s decision. A sustained decline in Treasury yields and the dollar would provide stronger confirmation that financial conditions are becoming more supportive for Bitcoin. Renewed strength in either market would challenge Monday’s advance, even if the pause in attacks holds.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs closed the July 20-24 week with $33.79 million in net inflows, marking a third consecutive positive week after gains of $75.67 million and $197.40 million in the prior two periods. The weekly total remained modest because $465.26 million in combined outflows on July 23 and 24 erased most of the $499.05 million recorded during the first three sessions. Weekly trading value reached $8.05 billion, while net assets ended at $77.82 billion. These figures show that ETF demand remains positive, though late-week withdrawals slowed the pace of accumulation.
Options positioning leaned more bullish. Deribit’s $70,000 and $72,000 call strikes held nearly $5 billion in combined open interest on July 24, marking a heavily positioned upside zone. The cluster could draw greater attention if Bitcoin breaks resistance, but crowded call positions remain exposed if the Fed delivers a hawkish policy message.
Bitcoin traded near $65,200, below its five-day moving average (MA) at $65,360 and 50-day average at $65,752, but above the 20-day average at $63,573. The five-day and 50-day MAs form the first resistance zone, followed by the 100-day MA near $69,969. The daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remained positive, with the MACD line at 451.07 above the 379.00 signal line, though the narrow 72.07 histogram reading shows that upward momentum has started to slow.
A daily close above $65,752 would reclaim the 50-day MA and place the 100-day MA near $69,969, followed by the $70,000 options cluster, in focus. A break below $65,000 would shift attention toward the 20-day MA at $63,573. The next scheduled test arrives on Wednesday, July 29, when the Federal Reserve releases its policy decision at 2 pm ET.
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