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Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $64,925.78 at the time of writing, climbing toward the $65,000 level after softer-than-expected US inflation data sharply reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report eased concerns that higher interest rates would continue weighing on risk assets, helping Bitcoin reach its highest level in nearly three weeks.
The rally has also shifted attention back to Bitcoin’s technical structure. After repeatedly failing to break above $64,000 in recent sessions, buyers are attempting to establish $64,000 as a new support level, with the market watching whether momentum can carry the cryptocurrency above its next major resistance near the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
The latest CPI report showed headline inflation slowed to 3.5% in June from 4.2%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.6% from 2.9%. The softer reading reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy again, sending market-implied odds of a July rate hike sharply lower while the two-year US Treasury yield fell six basis points after the release.
The change in rate expectations eased pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Higher interest rates make yield-bearing investments such as Treasury securities more attractive, while lower rate expectations often encourage capital to flow back into cryptocurrencies. Wednesday’s rally extended beyond Bitcoin, with Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) also recording strong gains as investors embraced a broader risk-on environment.
BREAKING: Bitcoin reclaims $64,000 and ETH reclaims $1,880 after US CPI posts its first monthly decline since the 2020.
Bitcoin is up 2.24% in the last 1.5 hours, adding $28 billion to its market cap.
ETH is up 4.88%, adding $10.8 billion.
$134 million in shorts were… pic.twitter.com/ayCmjGssrZ
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) July 14, 2026
Bitcoin now faces its first major technical test after reclaiming $64,000.
Bitcoin has reclaimed its 20-day moving average (MA) at $62,206, improving its short-term technical outlook. The immediate resistance sits near $65,700, while the more significant technical hurdle is the 50-day MA at $68,136, followed by the 100-day MA at $70,289. The 200-day MA near $80,635 continues to indicate that the broader trend has not yet shifted decisively in favor of buyers.
Momentum indicators continue to favor buyers. The four-hour relative strength index (RSI) has climbed to 59.82, reflecting strengthening buying momentum while remaining below the overbought threshold of 70.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) also remains in bullish territory after a bullish crossover, supporting the recovery. Even so, those signals still require confirmation through sustained price action above key resistance levels.
The inflation report improved market sentiment, but it did not remove every obstacle facing Bitcoin.
Core CPI slowed to 2.6% in June but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, supporting expectations that policymakers will keep rates elevated until inflation shows further progress.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also reiterated the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability, leaving upcoming economic releases and Fed communication as the next major catalysts for Bitcoin.
Geopolitical risks have also become harder to ignore. Brent crude has climbed above $85 per barrel after renewed military tensions between the United States and Iran raised concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained rise in energy prices could reignite inflation pressures, which could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to adopt a less restrictive policy stance despite the latest CPI improvement.
Onchain data suggests the recovery is unfolding against a market that has yet to fully repair. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Bitcoin’s Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has remained below zero since early June, with 44 of the last 60 trading days closing in negative territory. After bottoming at -0.22 on June 30, the metric recovered to around -0.13 by mid-July, as unrealized losses narrowed among short-term holders while long-term holders entered unrealized losses for the first time in the current cycle. The convergence of short-term holders, long-term holders, and the aggregate market near -0.13 suggests Bitcoin’s recent price recovery has yet to restore profitability across the broader investor base.
Former Glassnode analyst James Check offered a different interpretation of the market structure. He argued that forecasts calling for a decline into the mid-$40,000 range overlook the cost basis of active investors, with his True Market Mean model tracking between $76,000 and $78,000 since February 2026.
The differing conclusions highlight the uncertainty still surrounding Bitcoin’s recovery. Softer inflation has improved market sentiment, but investors continue to watch whether macro conditions, price action, and onchain indicators align before treating the latest rally as the start of a sustained uptrend.
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