Points of Focus

• Fed rate hike odds jumped from 10% to nearly 50% after Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned inflation could require another rate increase.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $424.7 million in net outflows ahead of the June CPI report.
• Bitcoin needs to reclaim $63,000 to ease bearish pressure, with $61,000 emerging as the next key support level.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $62,628.82 at the time of writing, remaining below the $63,000 level as investors braced for the June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report after expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate hike strengthened. The world’s largest cryptocurrency extended its decline after money markets raised the implied probability of a July rate increase to nearly 50%, up from about 10% just days earlier, following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Higher oil prices added fresh inflation concerns. Brent crude climbed about 10% after renewed US-Iran tensions, and fresh measures affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fueled concerns that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated. With borrowing costs potentially staying higher for longer, traders are now watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $61,000 support level ahead of key US inflation data.

Fed rate hike expectations weigh on Bitcoin’s price

Investors increased rate hike expectations after Waller warned policymakers may need to raise rates if inflation remains persistent. Bloomberg data showed money markets increased the implied probability of a July rate hike to roughly 50%, up from about 10% only days earlier.

Fed governor Chris Waller says a rate hike should be on the table if this week's inflation data come in hot, his clearest signal yet he could back a July move.

He lays out what he says is a “credible case” to hold steady if inflation cooperates but pairs it with this warning…

— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 13, 2026

The repricing spread across financial markets. The two-year US Treasury yield, which closely tracks monetary policy expectations, rose to 4.29%, its highest level since early 2025. Higher borrowing costs tend to reduce demand for speculative assets because investors can earn stronger returns from lower-risk fixed-income investments.

The rise in oil prices added further pressure on risk assets. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate climbed after renewed military action in the Middle East and new US measures affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over future energy supplies. Higher energy prices risk feeding inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

Brent Rises 10% as Trump Reinstates Iran Blockade, Proposes 20% Hormuz Cargo Charge

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated a blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and proposed a 20% charge on cargo carried by other vessels through the… pic.twitter.com/IeoNT9UNWV

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 13, 2026

ETF outflows reinforce cautious institutional sentiment

Institutional positioning also weakened before the inflation report. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a combined net outflow of $424.7 million on July 13, according to Farside Investors.

Fidelity’s FBTC led the withdrawals with $245.6 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT at $185.5 million and Grayscale’s GBTC at $53.1 million. VanEck’s HODL and Grayscale’s Mini Bitcoin Trust attracted modest inflows, showing that some investors rotated into smaller products rather than exiting the market entirely.

The outflows point to weaker institutional demand ahead of CPI, although one trading session is not enough to establish a broader trend. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have still attracted billions of dollars since launching in January 2024 despite sharp day-to-day swings in investor flows.

Bitcoin’s technical outlook keeps $61,000 support in focus

Bitcoin’s rejection at $63,000 has kept the near-term technical outlook under pressure.

Market analyst Martini Guy said Bitcoin attempted to recover the level but failed to hold above it. In his view, remaining below $63,000 increases the probability of another move toward the $61,000 support zone, while a recovery above resistance would shift attention back to $64,000.

Bitcoin tried to reclaim $63,000.

It couldn't hold it.

That's the level I'm watching right now.

As long as BTC remains below it, there's a strong case for another move towards the $61,000 support zone.

Reclaim $63,000, and the conversation shifts back towards $64,000. pic.twitter.com/rGq4wCEiYN

— That Martini Guy ₿ (@MartiniGuyYT) July 14, 2026

The next catalyst arrives with the June US CPI report. Bitcoin has experienced sharp swings around inflation releases throughout 2026 as traders rapidly adjust expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A softer reading could ease pressure on risk assets by reducing expectations for tighter monetary policy. A stronger-than-expected report would likely strengthen the case for higher rates and keep attention on the $61,000 support area.

There is still a counterpoint to the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has remained well above last month’s lows despite higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions, suggesting traders are trimming exposure rather than exiting the market outright ahead of the June CPI report and congressional testimony from Federal Reserve officials.