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Points of Focus
- Bitcoin traded at $77,758.30 as Fed hike odds rose to 87%.
- The US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.97%.
- ETF outflows and heavy $77,100-$80,200 supply could limit Bitcoin’s next move higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) held near $77,500 on Monday, trading at $77,758.30 as US rate expectations shifted sharply higher. Markets priced an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve hike this week, Reuters reported, while the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.97%.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold its ground stands out against that backdrop. Higher rates increase returns available on safer assets, while a near-5% Treasury yield raises the opportunity cost of holding BTC.
The price has avoided a deeper pullback, but four straight sessions of spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows show that demand hasn’t strengthened enough to turn the hold into a breakout signal.
Bitcoin’s price holds as Fed hike odds reach 87%
The repricing followed stronger inflation data. US consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI increased 0.3%. Goldman Sachs shifted to a 25-basis-point September hike call, while JPMorgan now expects hikes in both September and December.
Long-term yields remain elevated alongside that shift. The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.97% on Monday after briefly reaching 4.9915% on Friday, its highest level in almost three years. A sustained move above 5% would add another macro hurdle for Bitcoin by increasing the yield available on government debt.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows across the four trading sessions from Sept. 8 through Sept. 11, according to Farside data. Four consecutive outflow sessions leave less net ETF demand available to absorb selling near current levels.
Bitcoin faces $77,100-$80,200 supply resistance
CryptoQuant has identified the current range as an onchain resistance area. Head of research Julio Moreno said long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC within the $77,100-$80,200 band over a 30-day period this year. Moreno also placed Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average (MA) near $81,700, saying a close above it has historically marked the start of bull-market phases.
Bitcoin isn't losing momentum, it's meeting resistance.
Technical, valuation and on-chain resistance all converge just above the current price.
Until those levels break, consolidation is the higher-probability outcome. pic.twitter.com/dBZt7WmT5a
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 11, 2026
That overhead supply limits how much can be read into Bitcoin’s hold near $77,500. CoinGlass showed Bitcoin futures open interest around $52 billion, leaving substantial leveraged positioning in the market ahead of the Fed decision.
The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Wednesday, Sept. 16, with Bitcoin still trading inside CryptoQuant’s $77,100-$80,200 supply band.
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