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Bitcoin (BTC) slipped toward $63,000 on Tuesday as weakness in technology shares spilled into digital assets, pushing the cryptocurrency back toward the lower end of the range it has traded in for most of June. The decline comes even as Grayscale Research argues Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to equities and could regain lost ground if the Federal Reserve refrains from tightening monetary policy further.
Bitcoin traded at $62,822.83 at the time of writing, extending losses after reaching nearly $65,100 on Monday. The retreat coincided with a broader move out of risk assets as investors questioned whether heavy spending on AI infrastructure can continue supporting the rally that lifted semiconductor and large-cap technology stocks earlier this year.
Bitcoin spent much of the past month reacting to headlines surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran, with crude oil prices often shaping sentiment toward inflation-sensitive assets. That relationship has weakened over the past week.
Brent crude fell below $78 per barrel this week as negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued, and a 60-day framework allowing Iranian oil exports moved forward. Lower energy prices tend to ease inflation concerns, which would normally support assets such as Bitcoin.
Instead, traders focused on weakness in equities.
Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.3%, while S&P 500 futures lost 0.8%. Asian stocks fell more than 2%, and South Korea’s Kospi index plunged over 6% amid concerns that gains in semiconductor companies had become stretched after months of strong performance.
Bitcoin has shown a stronger correlation with high-growth technology stocks in recent months. That connection strengthened as institutions treated the asset as both a monetary hedge and a way to gain exposure to blockchain adoption trends.
The shift helps explain why Bitcoin declined despite lower oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions.
Earnings from memory-chip manufacturer Micron due later this week will offer investors another gauge of whether spending tied to artificial intelligence can keep supporting semiconductor valuations.
Grayscale Research takes a different view of Bitcoin’s recent underperformance.
According to research published by the asset manager, US equities have gained 9% since late February, while Bitcoin has fallen 1% and gold has declined 20% over the same period.
Since the Iran war began, US equities are up 9%. $BTC is down 1%. Gold is down 20%.
Grayscale Research believes if the Fed holds off rate hikes to fight inflation, $BTC could catch up to stocks.
Read the full article from @LowBeta on the Stack:https://t.co/7uqI5tHPcX pic.twitter.com/T5Es8Vef7X
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) June 22, 2026
Grayscale attributes much of that divergence to changing expectations for monetary policy.
One-year Federal Reserve rate expectations increased by 60 basis points between late February and June 22, while nearly half of Federal Reserve officials projected that another rate increase could become appropriate in 2026.
Higher rates raise the appeal of cash and fixed-income assets, increasing the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said the company’s base case remains unchanged and assumes policymakers will avoid raising rates. Under that scenario, the company believes Bitcoin could eventually narrow the gap with equities.
Six consecutive weeks of exchange-traded fund (ETF) withdrawals and a negative Coinbase premium suggest investors have yet to position for Grayscale’s scenario. SoSoValue data showed $68.2 million left US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs on June 22, while broader industry data indicates funds are heading toward a sixth consecutive week of net withdrawals.
According to SoSoValue data, on June 22 (Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of USD 68.1757 million, while Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB saw the largest single-day net inflow at USD 63.9991 million. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of USD… pic.twitter.com/w6U1OqCWQb
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 23, 2026
Onchain activity has shown more resilience. CryptoQuant data showed Bitcoin network activity has climbed to its highest level since late 2024, driven largely by transactions below 0.01 BTC, which accounted for about 80% of daily transfers. The increase contrasts with weak ETF demand and a negative Coinbase premium, suggesting retail activity has remained firmer than institutional demand.
Bitcoin network activity is surging.
Micro-transactions below 0.01 BTC now make up ~80% of all BTC transactions, up from under 50% in 2023, while OP_RETURN usage nears record highs driven by Runes, Ordinals, and inscriptions.
The surge is activity-driven, not value-driven. pic.twitter.com/ssAYPfEfmq
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 18, 2026
Several indicators suggest institutional demand remains weak despite Grayscale’s outlook.
The Coinbase premium, often used as a proxy for US buying activity, has widened to the downside in recent weeks. Bitcoin trading at a discount on Coinbase compared with other exchanges typically signals subdued demand from American investors.
Institutional demand has softened elsewhere. Strategy, one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, directed most of the proceeds from a recent $335.5-million stock sale toward cash reserves and purchased only 520 BTC, reducing a source of buying pressure that had supported the market earlier this year.
📊 #BITDailyChart | Institutional Flows Turn Negative with $8 billion in outflows
Over the past 30 days, combined flows from stablecoins, MicroStrategy, and Bitcoin ETFs have swung to a record $8 billion in net outflows, signaling that institutional investors are reducing… pic.twitter.com/st6CeoTjjU
— BIT Official (@BITofficial_EN) June 22, 2026
Derivatives markets paint a more balanced picture.
Bitcoin futures open interest has declined 19.5% in June, exceeding the asset’s 11.4% price decline over the same period. A CryptoQuant analyst said the drop suggests excess leverage has been removed, though lower leverage alone does not guarantee a price recovery.
Short-term traders still faced heavy losses.
More than $220 million in long positions were liquidated over four hours after Bitcoin dropped below $63,000, according to market participants tracking derivatives activity. Bitcoin analyst MartiniGuyYT also highlighted on X $62,200-$62,400 as an important support level because previous pullbacks into that area attracted buyers.
Bitcoin is now trading near the lower boundary of the range established earlier this month. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track for a sixth consecutive week of net withdrawals, while futures open interest remains near $20.9 billion, $5 billion below levels recorded at the start of June.
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