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Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $59,461.1 during Tuesday’s session after slipping back below the $60,000 mark as a sharp decline in the Japanese yen strengthened the US dollar and added fresh pressure on risk assets. The move also coincided with record monthly outflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), adding to evidence of weak institutional demand.
At the same time, new onchain data from CryptoQuant suggests Bitcoin may be entering the early stages of a bottoming process rather than a confirmed recovery. Investors are now assessing whether improving onchain conditions are enough to offset persistent macro headwinds and continued ETF outflows.
Bitcoin’s latest decline coincided with the Japanese yen falling to 162.41 per US dollar, its weakest level in 40 years. The decline reflects the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, where markets continue to price in a tighter Federal Reserve policy despite the Bank of Japan’s gradual rate increases. A stronger dollar has historically reduced demand for speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The weaker yen also revived concerns about yen-funded carry trades. For years, investors borrowed cheaply in Japan to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Any abrupt intervention by Japanese authorities or a shift in monetary policy could force investors to unwind those positions, increasing volatility across equities, bonds, and digital assets. Reuters reported that Japanese officials again signaled they were prepared to respond if currency moves became excessive.
At the same time, markets remain focused on this week’s US employment report and ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. Strong payroll data could reinforce expectations that US interest rates stay elevated for longer, while geopolitical developments continue to influence broader risk sentiment.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV said Bitcoin has produced its first meaningful internal bottoming signal through the company’s UTXO Block Profit and Loss Count Ratio Model. The indicator measures how many unspent transaction output (UTXO) blocks remain in profit compared with those already sitting at a loss.
The latest reading has moved into a range that previously appeared during market bottoming phases. That suggests a larger share of investors has already absorbed losses, reducing the pool of unrealized profits that often fuels additional selling pressure.
Bitcoin’s First Bottoming Flag Has Appeared
“BTC is finally showing evidence of a meaningful internal clean-up. But if history is a guide, the market may still need to absorb more stress before the bearish phase can fully exhaust itself.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/7KKpFgaIVk
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 29, 2026
CryptoQuant also cautioned against treating the signal as confirmation that the correction has ended. According to the report, the model’s 365-day moving average (MA) still needs to decline further before the market can be considered fully reset. The firm added that short covering rallies remain possible, but those moves wouldn’t represent a structural recovery unless the broader profit and loss profile improves over time.
Current market conditions remain consistent with that cautious outlook. Onchain data suggests selling pressure is becoming less intense, yet it doesn’t outweigh the broader macro and institutional challenges that continue to weigh on Bitcoin.
Institutional demand also remains soft. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $231 million in net outflows on June 29, extending June’s cumulative withdrawals to more than $4 billion, the largest monthly redemption since the products launched in January 2024. Sustained outflows have weakened one of Bitcoin’s strongest sources of institutional demand during the current cycle.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See $231 Million Outflow as Ether ETFs Lose $30 Million
According to SoSoValue data, on June 29 (Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of USD 231 million, while Ark Invest and 21Shares’ ARKB saw the largest single-day net inflow at USD… pic.twitter.com/aTlpGB9mIM
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 30, 2026
Market positioning also reflects caution rather than panic. Futures open interest has declined gradually instead of collapsing, while funding rates have eased, indicating leverage is being reduced in an orderly manner instead of through forced liquidations. That suggests traders remain defensive while waiting for a stronger catalyst.
Crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin noted that Bitcoin recently closed below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in the current market cycle. Puckrin identified $57,900 as the next key support based on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by Bitcoin’s onchain realized price near $53,200 if selling pressure continues.
Those levels also provide an important counterpoint to CryptoQuant’s early bottoming signal. While the market appears to be progressing through a deeper internal reset, continued ETF outflows, elevated interest rate expectations, and a stronger US dollar suggest Bitcoin’s recovery still depends as much on improving macro conditions as onchain metrics.
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