Points of Focus

• Arthur Hayes says AI investment has absorbed capital that could have flowed into Bitcoin.
• He expects crypto to fall during the first stage of an AI stock selloff.
• Bitcoin could recover once forced selling eases and liquidity returns.

Arthur Hayes says a collapse in AI stocks could pull Bitcoin lower as investors sell liquid assets to raise cash, followed by a recovery once fresh liquidity enters financial markets.

Speaking in an interview with Bonnie Blockchain, the BitMEX co-founder said the AI boom has captured much of the marginal capital available to investors. Money has poured into chipmakers, data centers, cloud infrastructure and technology stocks, leaving less liquidity for Bitcoin and other digital assets.

AI spending has absorbed market liquidity

Hayes expanded on the argument in his June essay, Reality Test, which examined Bitcoin’s weaker performance during a period of rising dollar liquidity.

Using figures compiled from public company disclosures, Hayes estimated that businesses issued about $1.5 trillion in debt to fund AI development and infrastructure between November 2022 and June 2026. US M2 money supply also increased by roughly $1.5 trillion over that period, according to his calculation.

Around $1.3 trillion of the estimated AI-related debt was issued from 2025 onward. Hayes linked the acceleration in AI financing with Bitcoin’s performance after its October 2025 peak.

His estimate places data centers, specialized chips, energy infrastructure and cloud capacity among the largest destinations for newly created capital. The scale of that spending has reduced the pool of money available for crypto, according to Hayes.

Why Bitcoin could face early selling

A sharp AI stock decline could tighten credit and force investors to raise cash. Since Bitcoin trades around the clock, it may become an early source of liquidity for traders covering losses or reducing leverage.

Hayes argues that weaker lending and heavy losses across AI markets could leave less capital available for crypto and limit Bitcoin’s near-term recovery.

Bitcoin could recover as liquidity returns

Hayes expects a deep AI downturn to create stress across banks and credit markets. Governments and central banks may eventually respond with measures designed to stabilize the financial system and restore liquidity.

Bitcoin could begin recovering as investors anticipate that response. Hayes has kept core Bitcoin and Ether positions while reducing several altcoin holdings and using derivatives for tactical short exposure.

Hayes gave no fixed timeline for the downturn. His thesis depends on losses spreading from AI stocks into credit markets and eventually prompting a policy response that restores market liquidity.