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Points of Focus
- In June 2026, the global broad money supply reached a new high of $150 trillion.
- Bitcoin’s circulating supply is near 20.08 million, with a hard maximum of 21 million.
- The structural differences in how new monetary units enter their respective systems are highlighted by this discrepancy.
In June 2026, the global broad money supply reached $150 trillion. According to aggregated central bank data from 169 countries and territories that account for 99% of the world’s GDP, that amount represents a $10.7-trillion rise over the previous year, or 7.7% growth.
With a compound annual growth rate of about 6.9%, the stock has increased from $26 trillion in 2000. This expansion has reached about $50 trillion since 2020. Both advanced and emerging-market/developing economies contribute around $75 trillion.
Against this backdrop of growing fiat liquidity, Bitcoin’s (BTC) circulating supply remains close to 20.08 million coins, just below its hard 21 million cap.
So, how can a programmed, inelastic issuance schedule interact with a global monetary system that expands through credit creation?
BREAKING: Global broad money supply surged +$10.7 trillion YoY in June, or +7.7%, to a record $150 trillion.
This marks the 9th consecutive YoY increase above +7.0%, the longest such streak since 2021.
The biggest increase over this period was recorded in February 2026, at… pic.twitter.com/uP3f65k2hi
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 1, 2026
The real size of the expansion
The $150-trillion figure is not an unexpected increase. Growth surged in April 2025, peaking at 11.9% year-on-year in February 2026 before slowing to 7.7% in June. The weakening of the US dollar against other major currencies contributed to some of the dollar-denominated increase. The narrower M2 aggregate was valued between $98 trillion and $120 trillion in mid-2026, depending on the precise definition and conversion mechanism.
In many economies, money creation has surpassed nominal GDP growth. The long-term trend reveals repeated accelerations following stress events, which are in turn followed by slower expansion that never reverses the cumulative rise. The worldwide stock increased by almost six times between 2000 and 2026.
Marc Dumpff, CEO and Founder of BTC Now, notes one implication of the scale:
“$150 trillion broad money supply is not what scares me; what scares me is it sits next to $118 trillion global GDP, which implies the overall velocity of money is shrinking. $150 trillion is further not total broad money stock, as we are currently sitting on close to $350 trillion in fixed income assets, which act almost as cash in the system. So, if credit money is created against monetizing assets, it makes one wonder where the cash is sitting, as the broad liquidity increase is not reflective to global asset price increases pro rata.”
Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule
The entire supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins by its system. The circulating supply was close to 20.08 million as of early September 2026, or around 95.6% of the final maximum, so about 920,000 BTC is yet to be issued.
The current block subsidy is 3.125 BTC, which has been in place since the halving in April 2024. At the network’s aim of one block every 10 minutes, daily issuance averages around 450 BTC, with an annual issuance of approximately 164,000 BTC. This yields an annual supply inflation rate of 0.8%. The next scheduled issuance is at block 1,050,000 in April 2028, reducing the subsidy to 1.5625 BTC.
Issuance is deterministic, meaning that economic conditions, policy decisions, or demand do not influence it. Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, thinks of the hard cap this way:
“Bitcoin’s permanent 21 million coin hard cap, with subdivision into 100 million satoshis per coin, is one of its primary guards against inflationary behavior. This is a big reason why it has outperformed the US dollar by more than 100x since 2016 (and 1,000x since 2013).”
Where new money actually enters
Commercial banks are the main source of expansion for fiat broad money. When a bank provides a loan, it also creates a deposit liability. Central bank actions, such as open-market purchases, reserve adjustments, and targeted lending facilities in some jurisdictions, either intensify or restrain this process.
Deposits are further increased by fiscal deficits funded by bond issuance that is absorbed by central banks or the banking system. What’s more, the dollar-denominated global aggregate is also affected by valuation changes and currency conversion.
But what about Bitcoin? BTC can only be issued through the mining process. Miners do computational work to generate valid blocks, and the system rewards the winning miner with the subsidy plus transaction fees. The schedule cannot be accelerated or paused at the discretion of any authority. The protocol itself keeps producing new units until the last satoshi is mined in 2140; however, lost coins gradually reduce the effective circulating supply.
The economic distinction is mechanical. Credit demand and policy drive the supply of fiat currency. The Bitcoin supply is programmed. Dumpff underscores the contrast:
“Credit drives fiat money is the basic need for a functioning economy. Credit money can expand and contract based on demand, while fixed-supply assets facilitate price volatility in the comparable.”
Economic implications of divergence
The buying power of existing monetary units tends to decline when broad money growth continues to outpace productivity and real GDP growth. Excess liquidity frequently finds its way into financial assets, real estate, and commodities, as historical events demonstrate.
The Kobeissi Letter’s analysts have used gold’s long-run association with global M2 as an example. The Fidelity model placed an expected gold price near $5,025 based on that linkage.
Bitcoin’s fixed schedule results in an inflation rate that approaches zero. At the current rate of issuance, the annual addition is less than 1% of the circulating supply and will continue to shrink after 2028.
Bitcoin holders do not see any dilution from fresh issuance in excess of the scheduled number. Fiat deposit holders are continuously diluted in proportion to the growth rate of the monetary aggregate in which the deposits are denominated.
Without taking into consideration differences in velocity, acceptance, and regulatory treatment, this comparison is not full. The great majority of global transactions are settled with fiat money, and most debt contracts use it as the unit of account.
The financial role of Bitcoin is still restricted to a limited subset of cross-border, store-of-value, and speculative use cases. As of early September 2026, the market capitalization was near $1.6 trillion, which is just a small fraction of the $150 trillion broad money stock.
Notes around the $150-trillion number
Growth in the money supply does not always lead to inflation. Banks can also retain excess reserves, velocity can decrease, and real output may absorb more units. When policy tightens and demand weakens, rapid preceding expansion can coexist with subsequent disinflation, as seen in 2022-2023.
Global aggregates also include exchange-rate noise. A weaker dollar mechanically inflates the dollar worth of non-dollar money stocks, even if local currency growth remains constant.
Dumpff’s observation on velocity and the larger fixed-income stock adds weight to this caution. The $150-trillion figure is compared to $118 trillion in global GDP and nearly $350 trillion in fixed-income assets that function similarly to cash, raising questions about where the additional liquidity is actually located and why it has not resulted in proportional asset-price gains across the board.
Limits of the scarcity comparison
The overall narrative of Bitcoin’s scarcity has limitations of its own. Several million coins are estimated to be permanently lost, limiting effective supply, despite the protocol’s continued issuance of new units. Eventually, transaction fees will have to take the place of the subsidy as the main incentive for miners. With fluctuating fee revenue, it is typically only a small portion of total miner income.
In addition to supply schedules, regulatory classification, custody infrastructure, and competing digital assets all have an impact on demand. Also, fixed-supply assets can cause higher price volatility because new supply does not expand with demand.
Outlook framed by statistics
The $150-trillion figure represents a stock — not a flow — and exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal policies, and credit creation are all necessary for its continuous growth. Bitcoin’s last 920,000 coins will enter circulation on a predetermined schedule that cannot be changed without a consensus change. Under current rules, the economic contrast is permanent: One system increases in response to demand and policy, while the other only expands on a predetermined schedule.
The next observable milestones are the June-December 2026 money-supply prints, the trajectory of major central bank balance sheets, and the approaching 2028 Bitcoin subsidy reduction.
Yet regardless of price outcomes, differences between currency expansion rates and Bitcoin’s dropping issuance rate will remain measurable. The figures themselves, $150 trillion against 21 million, only help to highlight the disparity in monetary design.
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